In a Europe defined by ageing societies, shrinking workforces and stagnant living standards, immigration is both a partial economic solution and a political problem in its own right.
Immigrants and their impact on labour markets and welfare systems are sure to be electrically charged themes in next year’s British general election, and to shape political debate elsewhere, from the Nordic states to Greece.
Buried in a report from the European Commission are forecasts for immigration and population growth up to 2060 that may add fuel to these fires. That these estimates are the work not of politicians with axes to grind, but of non-partisan EU specialists, serves in principle to enhance their credibility.
According to data released on November 27 by Britain’s Office for National Statistics, net migration to the UK surged to 260,000 in the year ending June 2014. This unexpectedly high figure emerged after the anti-EU, anti-immigrant UK Independence party stunned the ruling Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron by scoring its second parliamentary by-election victory in less than two months.
Latest opinion polls suggest Ukip may capture 14 to 18 per cent of the vote and seize third place in the next general election, due by May. Rightly or wrongly, this rightwing populist party takes the view that one of its trump cards will be public unease with perceived high immigration levels.
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